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What's the Status of These Stocks? Ujjivan Small Finance | SBI Cards | Bajaj Finance | Bandhan Bank | AU Small
Original: ఈ Stocks పరిస్థితేంటి? Ujjivan Small Finance | SBI Cards | Bajaj Finance | Bandhan Bank | AU Small
Takeaway
COVID-lockdown lending stress hits hotels/aviation finance and microfinance hardest; financially strong NBFCs like Bajaj Finance/SBI Cards will survive while weaker microfinance banks face structural risk.
Summary
- Deep-dive on lending/NBFC stocks during COVID lockdown using Bajaj Finance management's three-scenario framework from their conference call.
- Scenario 1 (lockdown ends April 14): 70% volume normal, 50-60% PBT impact; Scenario 2 (extends to May 15): 50% volume, 80-90% PBT hit; Scenario 3 (longer): significant structural consumer-behavior damage.
- Most-impacted sectors: hotels, restaurants, aviation lending (employee layoffs cascade into loan defaults); two-wheeler finance like Bajaj Auto Finance saw credit shocks similar to demonetization.
- Microfinance lenders (Ujjivan SFB, Bandhan Bank, AU SFB) are vulnerable since their daily-wage borrowers can't repay — interest rates 18-24% vs 10.5% bank loans.
- Strong financials (Bajaj Finance, HDFC, SBI Cards) will weather but weaker NBFCs may face survival risk.
NBFCCOVIDmicrofinance
Original description
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